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The risk of Bitcoin falling to $12,000; Was the recent spike a bull trap?

خطر سقوط بیت کوین به ۱۲هزار دلار؛ جهش اخیر یک تله گاوی بود؟

Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that the recent signs of the beginning of an upward trend were simply a bull trap. Various tools also show that the price of Bitcoin is in danger of falling to $12,000 with a possible increase in interest rates in the coming months.

To Report Kevin Telegraph, a team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius published their forecast of the rate of increase in the Benchmark Interest Rate by the Federal Reserve. They say the US central bank will raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points in September and by 0.5 percentage points in November. According to this report, these figures have increased by 0.5 and 0.25 percentage points, respectively, compared to their previous forecast.

The path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has played a key role in determining the Bitcoin price trend in 2022. Periods of rising interest rates — from near zero to around 2.5 percent — have prompted investors to move away from riskier assets and seek safer alternatives such as cash.

Bitcoin has lost about 60% of its value since the beginning of the year and is now hovering around the psychological level of $20,000. Some analysts, including a trader nicknamed Doctor Profit, believe that the price of Bitcoin has entered a bearish phase in the current situation.

This anonymous trader warned:

Please consider the Fed’s next decisions. The news of the increase of 0.75 percentage points in the interest rate has already been reflected in the prices. An increase of 1 percentage point will cause blood in the market.

BTC/USD price performance comparison chart between 2012 to 2016 and 2020 to 2022
Bitcoin price performance comparison chart between 2012 to 2016 and 2020 to 2022.

On the other hand, the positive correlation of the price of Bitcoin with the US stock market, especially the technology companies active in the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (Nasdaq), carries the risks of a deeper price correction. Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell reiterated her warning that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation more aggressively could cause the stock market to fall 26 percent, saying that the recent rise in stock market prices could be a bull trap. ) be

Read more: What is Bull Trap?

Interestingly, these warnings have coincided with a recent increase in short Bitcoin trading positions by institutional investors, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report.

CME's Bitcoin Derivatives Chart, which is currently on Smart Money
Chart of short and long Bitcoin trading positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange managed by institutional investors.

Nick, data source analyst at Ecoinometrics noted:

[این داده‌ها] It’s definitely a sign that some people are counting on risk asset prices to fall this fall.

The agreement of options trading in reaching the price of Bitcoin at $12,000

Bitcoin option trading data, which expires at the end of 2022, shows that most traders are confident that the price of Bitcoin will fall to the range of $10,000 to $12,000.

Agreement price chart of open bitcoin option contracts
Chart of the volume of open bitcoin option contracts by the agreed price.

In general, the ratio of call to put contracts open in the options market on September 18 (September 27) was 1.9, and the purchase option contracts for the price of $45,000 have the most weight. Examining the agreed prices in the range of 10,000 to 23,000 thousand dollars shows the presence of at least four put option trades against every three buy option trades. This data is perhaps a more realistic interim assessment of market sentiment.

From the point of view of technical analysis, with the formation of the reverse cup and handle pattern, the price of Bitcoin can decrease by 30% and reach $13,500. Conversely, a (definite) price rally above the 50-day EMA (MA 50 – red line in the image) near the $21,250 level would invalidate this bearish outlook and send Bitcoin on its way to It will place psychological resistance of $25,000.

The risk of Bitcoin falling to $12,000;  Was the recent spike a bull trap?
Reverse cup and handle pattern in BTC/USD daily trading.

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