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Fresh data: Small investors have prevented Bitcoin from falling below $18,000

داده‌های تازه: سرمایه‌گذاران کوچک مانع سقوط بیت کوین به زیر ۱۸هزار دلار شده‌اند

While the whales’ influence on Bitcoin’s price has been slowly waning in recent years, a review of the data shows that small investors have been fighting big investors for months to prevent Bitcoin’s price from falling below $18,000; A trend that has increased analysts’ expectations of the formation of a price floor in the market.

To Report Cointelegraph, while Bitcoin is hovering in the $18,000-$20,000 range, on-chain data shows a slight divergence between the behavior of whales (addresses with more than 1,000 BTC) and fish. (Investors with a relatively small amount of Bitcoin).

Pisces have been accumulating Bitcoin during the recent neutral trend. According to Glassnode data, the net supply held by addresses with 100 to 1,000 bitcoins increased from 3.71 million units in June to 3.77 million units in October.

Bitcoin supply chart available from addresses that have 100 to 1.00 bitcoins
Bitcoin supply chart available to addresses that have 100 to 1,000 units in stock.

In the same period, the net supply available to addresses with 10 to 100 bitcoins has increased from 3 million to 3.15 million. This trend has been similar among wallets that hold 0.001 to 10 bitcoins.

Meanwhile, the fluctuating price trend has coincided with a decrease in the supply of Bitcoin at the disposal of the whales. For example, the supply of bitcoins held by addresses with balances of 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins decreased from 3.82 million in June to 3.69 million.

Fresh data: Small investors have prevented Bitcoin from falling below $18,000
Bitcoin supply chart available to addresses that have 1,000 to 10,000 units in stock.

In addition, addresses with 10,000 to 100,000 bitcoins have also reduced their holdings from 1.98 million to 1.92 million during the same period.

Based on the data we mentioned above, an initial interpretation could be that the fish are more confident than the whales about the possible bottom of the Bitcoin price in the $18,000 range.

As you can see in the chart below, although small investors may have weathered the massive selling pressure created by large investors, historically the risk of a price crash increases as the whale population declines.

Fresh data: Small investors have prevented Bitcoin from falling below $18,000
A graph of Bitcoin price (black line) compared to the number of whales (orange line).

One of the few exceptions occurred when the price of Bitcoin rose above $69,000, while the number of whales was relatively stable. This could indicate that whales have less impact on the market compared to previous years; Especially when the Bitcoin inventory of exchanges continues to decrease to its lowest level in the last few years.

Increasing correlation between bitcoin and gold

The bulls continue to rally as some reports suggest investors are once again looking at Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss, digital asset strategists at Bank of America, see Bitcoin’s weakening correlation with US stock market indices and its corresponding strengthening with gold price trends as a sign that the currency Digital is looking to fulfill its digital gold narrative in the future.

It is also interesting to note that the 40-day correlation of Bitcoin with high-risk markets such as Nasdaq or S&P500 has decreased to 69% and 75%, which is lower than the value recorded in the last month. On the other hand, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased from zero in August to 67% in October.

Fresh data: Small investors have prevented Bitcoin from falling below $18,000
40-day correlation chart of Bitcoin and gold.

Bank of America strategists have written about this:

Reduction of positive correlation [بیت کوین] With the S&P500 or Nasdaq increasing its correlation to gold, along with continued macroeconomic instability and an unclear market bottom, it suggests that investors are likely to view Bitcoin as a relatively safe asset.

However, some analysts expect the price of Bitcoin to eventually fall below the $18,000 support. Independent market analyst Filbfilb believes that the price of Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 due to Bitcoin’s close correlation with risky assets and macroeconomic problems.

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