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Anchin Analysis: Signs of Heavy Selling Among Bitcoin 2021 Buyers

تحلیل آنچین: نشانه‌هایی از فروش سنگین میان خریداران سال ۲۰۲۱ بیت کوین

On-chain data shows that a large part of those who bought Bitcoin between the last 6 and 18 months sold their assets at a significant loss. Despite this, there are still reasons to attract and buy bitcoins from such holders.

To Report Cointelegraph, with the continuation of Bitcoin trading below the $20,000 level, the market is witnessing a coordinated and fresh sale of some of the holders of this digital currency, and the role of one-year Bitcoin investors in this flow is also prominent.

One of the analysts of the CryptoQuant platform has recently pointed out in an article the intensification of selling pressure among some of the holders of Bitcoin in the last one year.

Bitcoin is now trading at prices rarely seen since 2020. Edris, a cryptoquant analyst, by examining the “age of spent outputs deposited to exchanges”, has illustrated that those who bought Bitcoin between April 2021 and April 2022 (April 1400 to April 1401) had done, they have sold in bulk; That too at a lower price than the price at which they had bought it.

Idris says:

From the chart below, it can be seen that coins purchased between the last 6-18 months have recently sold off extensively. These coins were purchased between April 2021 and April 2022 at a price of more than $30,000. This means that those who invested during the bull market of 2021 and above $30,000, have left the market with a loss of approximately 50%.

Anchin Analysis: Signs of Heavy Selling Among Bitcoin 2021 Buyers
Chart of Bitcoin price and spent outputs deposited into digital currency exchanges after 6 to 18 months.

Such events should not be dismissed lightly, as such collective selling usually occurs near the bottoms of bear markets. Now the main question is whether the $17,600 floor in June will be the bottom of the current Bitcoin bear market or not?

Idris said in this regard:

Such coordinated selling usually occurs in the final months of bear markets and is a sign that a cyclical price floor is likely to form in the near future.

Caue Oliveira, another cryptoquant analyst, has pointed out another historical trend of Bitcoin bear markets, which is now repeating itself, by examining the “Profit to Output Spent Ratio” indicator.

This index actually divides the selling price of a certain amount of Bitcoin by the price paid to buy it. The result of this division is usually a number close to one, and if the result is less than one, it means that investors are forced to sell their assets at a net loss, and it indicates that the market is bearish.

Data from the Glassnode analytics platform also shows that on September 29 (October 7), the “adjusted” profit ratio of Bitcoin’s spent outputs was equal to 0.95. After reaching its lowest level in June, this index is now returning to level one, which means that we may have passed the main opportunity to buy new units.

Anchin Analysis: Signs of Heavy Selling Among Bitcoin 2021 Buyers
Adjusted Profit Ratio Index of Bitcoin Spent Outputs.

Oliveira says:

By looking at the pattern of intra-chain sales of long-term holders, as measured by the same ratio of profit to output spent, we can discover the largest points where selling at a loss has occurred. The records of this index show that these points were the best opportunity to enter the market in terms of the amount of risk at the bottoms of the previous two bear markets of Bitcoin.

While pointing to the reduction of selling pressure in the market at the same time as the slight increase in the index of the ratio of profit to spent outputs, Oliveira added that looking into the future, the option of reaching the “maximum pressure point” is still relevant for long-term holders of Bitcoin.

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