Anachin’s analysis: $16,000 is likely to be the next bottom for Bitcoin

تحلیل آنچین: ۱۶هزار دلار احتمالاً کف بعدی بیت کوین خواهد بود

Some analysts use the potential role of whales in determining the price floor in the market to detect the possible trend of the price of Bitcoin. An examination of such data from the price paid by whales suggests that the next price floor for Bitcoin is likely to be somewhere in the $16,000 range.

To Report Kevin Telegraph, Glassnode has examined the Whale Cost Basis with a new perspective in the latest issue of its weekly Anchin newsletter.

Reaching the collective price paid by whales to the resistance line

In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price trend has been remarkably stable, unlike usual, and we have seen one of its least volatile periods.

While many analysts are preparing for the start of a major Bitcoin uptrend; Glassnode is investigating how long the price floor can last.

According to Glassnode, the investigation of the buying and selling behavior of whales showed that we have witnessed de-risking in the market after the price of Bitcoin reached the historic low of $17,600 in June.

A phenomenon that also occurred during the bear market of 2019 (2018). If history repeats itself, we now have to wait for an Equilibrium period for whales to switch from sellers to buyers.

Glassnod explained:

In addition to a relatively neutral market among small to mid-sized investors, the Accumulation Trend Score Index for whales holding 1,000-10,000 Bitcoins indicates heavy accumulation since late September (early October).

The Accumulation Trend Score is one such indicator to determine whether investors are actively accumulating or not.

In recent months, whales with more than 10,000 bitcoins have shown little inclination to distribute (sell) their holdings.

As it stands, the cumulative price that whales have paid for their bitcoins is $15,800. As such, this price can be a strong support level if the market continues its downward trend.

Glassnod added:

By determining the price of depositing and withdrawing whales (addresses with more than 1,000 bitcoins) from exchanges, we can estimate the average price of depositing and withdrawing whales from January 2017. Currently, the base cost of whales is around $15,800.

Detailed graphs of Bitcoin whale activity
Detailed graphs of Bitcoin whale activity

Base cost determines the price trend

Other analysts have also examined how large investors shape Bitcoin’s price action.

Based on whale buying data, analytics platform Valmap showed that $19,000 is now a key support area for Bitcoin; The range that has been preserved so far.

Also, the resistance line of $20,380 has dictated the daily upward price limit for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Arc Investments has also announced the cost of Bitcoin investment base at $19,000 in its monthly newsletter, “The Bitcoin Monthly”.

Despite the prevailing conditions, the market is still waiting to enter the submission phase so that Bitcoin can reach its new price floor sooner.

In the end, Glassnod concluded that in many ways, many such measures, market structure, and investor behavior patterns are tools for focusing on details in order to find a price floor in a bearish market.

The main missing piece of this puzzle is the length of time it takes; Which, as history shows, is probably still months away from a full market recovery.


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