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4 predictions about the future price of Bitcoin; Will BTC price fall to $12,000?

بررسی رفتار قیمت بیت کوین در کوتاه مدت Bitcoin Price Prediction

The Goldman Sachs bank recently spoke in a report about the impact of interest rate hikes on financial markets and warned that the continuation of the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve may lead to a sharp fall in the stock market and digital currency. But the econometrics analysis and the option market analysis and the technical analysis of the Bitcoin price do not paint a pleasant picture about the future of the market in the medium term. What do these 4 predictions say about the future of Bitcoin price?

According to Mihan Blockchain and quoted by Cointelegraph, a team of Goldman Sachs bank economists led by Jan Hatzius published their prediction regarding the possible increase in interest rates in the coming months. According to these economists, the US central bank will increase the interest rate September 0.75% And in November 0.5% will increase; This is while Goldman Sachs predicted that the interest rate will increase by 0.5% and 0.25% respectively in these months.

The path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has played a key role in determining the Bitcoin price trend in 2022. In an era where interest rates have risen from near zero to the 2.25-2.5% range, investors are looking to move away from risky assets and into safer alternatives such as cash.

Bitcoin is down about 60% year-to-date and is now hovering around the psychological support of $20,000. Of course, at the time of writing the current price of Bitcoin is $18,474. Some analysts, including one with the nickname Doctor Profit, believe that the price of Bitcoin has already entered a “bottoming period”. Of course, Doctor Profit warned about the future actions of the Federal Reserve and said:

Please consider the Fed’s next decisions. A 0.75% increase in the interest rate has already been included in the prices, but a 1% increase in this rate will lead to the collapse of the markets.

Bitcoin performance comparison
Comparison of Bitcoin performance in 2016-2012 and 2022-2022

On the other hand, the constant correlation of the price of Bitcoin with the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq Composite index, carries the risk of a more severe price correction.

Sharon Bell, one of the strategists at Goldman Sachs, believes that the recent growth of the stock market may have been a bull trap and warned of the possibility of a 26% fall in the stock market, with interest rate hikes to combat inflation. .

Sharon Bell’s recent warning comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly report on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data shows a significant increase in bitcoin short positions by institutional investors.

Chart of positions of institutional investors in the Bitcoin derivatives market
Chart of positions of institutional investors in the Bitcoin derivatives market

Nick, Equinometrics analyst, in this regard Stated:

This is definitely a sign that some people in this fallhave counted on the fall of risky assets.

What do options market data and technical analysis say about the price of Bitcoin?

A review of Bitcoin option contracts that will expire at the end of 2022 shows Most traders expect Bitcoin to fall to the $10,000-$12,000 range.

Chart of Bitcoin option contracts with different strikes
Chart of Bitcoin option contracts with different strikes

In general, the ratio of open trading volume of call (buy) contracts to put (sell) contracts on September 18 (27 September) reached 1.90, of which purchase contracts with a strike price of $45,000 were the largest. However, there were 4 sells versus 3 buys with strikes of $10,000 to $23,000, which is perhaps a more realistic assessment of market sentiment.

From a technical point of view, on the Bitcoin chart Reverse Cup and Handle Pattern It is forming and the price of Bitcoin could drop by almost 30% and to $13,500 reach

1 day time frame bitcoin chart
1 Day Time Frame Bitcoin Chart – Source: TradingView

On the flip side, if Bitcoin resolutely breaks above its 50-day EMA and reaches $21,250, this bearish forecast will be invalidated, setting Bitcoin up for a rally to $25,000.

  • 4 predictions about the future price of Bitcoin:
  1. Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs believes that the stock market is risky 26% fall and if this prediction is realized, the price of Bitcoin is expected to decrease by at least the same amount.
  2. The Econometrics analyst has concluded from the data on the borrowing and selling of Bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that some traders are on the fall of risky assets in this fall have calculated
  3. Options market data shows that most traders expect the price of Bitcoin to remain in the range until the end of 2022 10 to 12 thousand dollars be
  4. The technical analysis of bitcoin price shows that the inverted cup and handle pattern has appeared in the daily BTC price chart and according to this pattern, the price fall to $13,500 It is not out of the range of possible options.

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